Cyclone Mocha is likely to spare the coast of eastern India and even that of Bangladesh and may make landfall in Myanmar as a ‘severe cyclone’ between May 13 evening and May 14 noon.
Most models highlighted in the Tropical Cyclone Outlook report released by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on May 7 predicted this outcome.
The IMD GFS model predicts a depression on May 9 over the southeast and the nearby south Andaman Sea, which will intensify into a cyclonic storm on May 10. Peak intensification is predicted to be a very severe cyclonic storm stage. It is showing an initial movement in the north-northwest until May 11 and then a slow recurve in the north-northeast after that. According to the IMD’s Tropical Weather Outlook published today, landfall is expected to occur around 5.30 AM IST (0000 UTC) on May 14 over the Bangladeshi and Myanmarese shores near 21.3N/92.5E.
According to the ECMWF, a depression is expected around May 10 and will rapidly intensify into a severe cyclone on May 11. Additionally, it shows early north-northwestward travel up to May 11 and then curvature to the north-northeast. According to the prediction, landfall is expected on May 15 over the shores of Bangladesh and Myanmar close to 23.3N/91.5E.
According to the prognosis, IMD MME (based on IMD GFS and NCEP GFS) is showing a similar intensification and movement with landfall over the Myanmar coast at about 16.2N/94.2E.
A low-pressure area has developed over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and the nearby South Andaman Sea, as predicted by the IMD. On May 9, it is predicted to turn into a depression over the same area, and on May 10, it is predicted to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the southeast Bay of Bengal and surrounding parts of the east-central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
It is expected to proceed first in a north-northwesterly direction till May 11. The forecast predicted that it would then gradually recurve and proceed towards the shores of Bangladesh and Myanmar to the north-northeast.
