The stage is being set for yet another high-stake contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress in Madhya Pradesh as the states go to polls later this year. Today, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Bhopal to rejuvenate the party workers. The BJP central leadership has understood that the party will have to struggle to retain power in the state. To arrest anti-incumbency, the party think tank has decided to fight the election more in the name of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi than Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
The party is contemplating to drop MLAs facing anti-incumbency. Therefore, the party is trusting on internal assessments and surveys to assess MLA’s performance. In this contest, the BJP is in a state of dilemma over 26 MLAs of Jyotiraditya Scindia faction. Many top BJP leaders are of the view that Scindia has become a headache for the party as majority of the MLAs facing anti-incumbency mood of the electorates and dropping them may lead to a fresh clash within the party.
This may be reminded here that although, the saffron party had lost the 2018 last elections, and the Congress led by veteran leader Kamal Nath managed to come back to power after 15 years in the state, shifting of 22 MLAs to the BJP (in support of Jyotiraditya Scindia) had brought the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government back into power again in March 2020.
In 2020, a total of 26 Congress MLAs (22 in March and four subsequently) had switched sides to the BJP along with Scindia, thus bringing down the Kamal Nath-led Congress government in Madhya Pradesh. Subsequently, the bypolls for 28 Assembly seats were held in November 2020, wherein the BJP managed to win 19 getting a comfortable majority in the House, which has a strength of total 230 legislators. But now, the honeymoon period is over.
As the assembly elections inching closer, the BJP is facing a huge anti-incumbency for nearly two-decade rule of CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the BJP leadership reportedly struggling to defuse the rift among old vs new party cadre in many of the assembly constituencies of Gwalior-Chambal region which constitutes 34 assembly seats.
Notably, the BJP internal reports suggest the performance reports of majority ministers in CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s cabinet are very poor and amongst them, majority belongs to Scindia faction and the reason was that they were not giving heed to the state BJP leadership.
Now, with the Assembly elections barely five months away, and with the Shivraj Chouhan-led government facing huge anti-incumbency, the BJP leadership is reportedly struggling to end the rift between the ‘old’ and ‘new’ party cadres in many assembly constituencies.
A question has always remained in state’s political gallery that whether the BJP will give tickets to Scindia loyalists – who won by-polls and those are cabinet ministers? Speculations are rife that Scindia loyalists are relentlessly building pressure on state BJP leadership for tickets in upcoming Assembly polls. However, the top leaders would duck this question saying the decision would be taken by the Central leadership.
Notably, from March 2020, it is to mention that the BJP has accepted all demands made by Scindia, be it inducting his loyalists in cabinet ministers, state ministers, or appointing in different organisations and institutions. But, the situation seems quite different now and the political future of most Scindia loyalists seems to be at stake, as the BJP leadership claimed the ticket will be given on the basis of surveys and winning possibilities only.
Against this backdrop, all eyes are on the loyalists of Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, who along with him had jumped ship from the Congress to the BJP in 2020. As the Assembly elections near in Madhya Pradesh, many Scindia loyalists finding it tough to secure their political future, especially as the ruling BJP facing huge anti-incumbency. Therefore, many of the MLAs are contemplating to change sides during appropriate time. The process has already begun. Two of the trusted lieutenants of Scindia has already left the BJP and joined the Congress.
On 14th June, 2023, BJP leader Baijnath Singh Yadav, considered to be close to Scindia, re-joined the Congress in the presence of senior party leaders Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh. Re-joining of Baijnath Singh Yadav in Congress has given a jolt the saffron camp. Not only because he was a strong supporter of Scindia, but also because he hails from Schindia’s bastion in Shivpuri. And with top state Congress leaders welcoming Yadav back into the party, it is seen as a signal that Scindia might be losing ground in his own bastion.
In yet another such episode, Shivpuri BJP vice-president Rakesh Gupta re-joined the Congress on 26th June, 2023. In a showcase of strength, Gupta has left for Bhopal with a caravan of hundreds of vehicles carrying 2000 supporters. Talking about leaving BJP, Gupta said that he was feeling “cheated and disrespected” in BJP. He took Congress membership in presence of MP Congress chief Kamal Nath and former CM Digvijaya Singh. Gupta was a staunch supporter of Jyotiraditya Scindia and had left Congress in 2020 along with him to join BJP which led to the fall of 15-month Kamal Nath government.
Nearly five years later, it is seen both parties are almost neck and neck in the Gwalior-Chambal region. The Congress tally here has come down to 17 while the BJP has increased its strength from a meagre seven to 16 after the bypolls in 2020. Aside from the anti-incumbency against the BJP, which has ruled the state for 18 years, the most crucial factor in the ensuing elections in the region will be Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, who walked out of the Congress with a clutch of his supporters. There now exists an uneasy equation between the scion of the erstwhile royal family and local BJP leaders. The incomplete integration of Scindia’s supporters in the saffron fold has divided the BJP in two factions in almost all assembly segments of the region.
