Mobilenews24x7 Bureau
The Congress although has a reason to gain a moral high ground after K’taka polls but the road for it to 2024 is still miles away.
Even after nine years rule plus the anti-incumbency factor Modi still maintains his popularity yet the saffron party has many reasons to be careful.
A NDTV-CSDS survey on Modi’s nine years about 43 percent people have favoured Modi as the PM. That is a good news for the BJP.
‘Modi Sarkar’ once more is the chant among an identical percentage. The gap is big when compared to Rahul Gandhi’s 27%.
The BJP remains dominant with 39 percent people saying that they will vote for the party if elections are held today. This is 1.3 percentage points more than the 37.7 percent votes the BJP secured in 2019.
But a lot of time to go to the polls in 2024. The Congress’ projected vote share is at 29 percent. This is a significant gain compared to 2019, but it is still a good 10 percentage points behind the BJP.
After nine years in power, anti-incumbency is bound to set in. It’s creditable that the BJP’s projected vote share is actually predicted to increase.
But the survey also revealed some points of concern for the BJP.
In all likelihood the gap may narrow down when considered by Congress-BJP comparison not NDA and UPA.
In elections pre and post poll alliances come to make the difference. But this one was premised on pre-poll yardstick and cannot be a final indicator. That leaves the ‘others’ votes of 28% a decider sometimes as where those go before the polls.
Since the UPA has parties with a bigger vote share on board presently, there is a very high likelihood that the gap between NDA and UPA might actually be even lower than the 10-point gap between BJP and Congress.
While taking a look at the 2019 vote share of parties that are presently aligned with the BJP and the Congress.
The parties presently allied with the BJP secured around 4 percent votes while those allied with the Congress got a little over 7 percent. We haven’t factored in the Shiv Sena in either of the two categories because the party has split since then.
Therefore the vote share projections are a bit misleading because ideally it should have factored in pre-poll alliances.
In fact the parties those allied with the Congress in 2019 got a 7% vote while the ones allied with the BJP got 4 % and those were factored minus Shiv Sena then had split.
