Mobilenews24x7 Bureau
With footsteps of the 2024 elections round the corner, the permutations and combinations for claiming a big stake is on.
Survey agencies are working overtime to exercise their arms to find out who is who.
A recent survey has increased palpitations in the political circle. That the state of Maharashtra can play a decisive role in the 2024 polls.
After Uttar Pradesh, it is Maharashtra with 48 seats is the second biggest state in the Lok Sabha. In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Maharashtra is becoming one of the most difficult states to predict.
It can go in any way, pollsters foresee as what is very crucial that, the voters of the state are somehow vertically divided between NDA and the UPA.
The state after being wrecked by political blitzkrieg for last one year or more, the Shiv Sena factions can also play a role despite the Sena brand stands dissected by two factions.
As reported in the Media, the divergence seems imminent and that has to be analyzed says a survey. Which will be harder for the political observers.
So that takes the state to national prominence.
Let’s see the position of PM Modi whose support base has not eroded much in the times of recent turbulence. The PM gets a favorable thumbs up from more than 42 percent respondents. They want to see he comes back as the PM. Whereas, roughly over 42 percent are against. That leaves over just 15 percent noncommittal on their choice.
So the vertical divide is clear according to the survey. Something the BJP has to work hard.
Maharashtra being almost equally divided between pro-Modi and anti-Modi voters with a sizable number of undecided people, makes it very difficult to predict.
Cast groups may play a role
This near equal division between pro-Modi and anti-Modi camps also means that both sides are getting substantial support from all caste groups. This is unlike the Hindi belt and Gujarat, where the BJP had a clear lead among Upper Caste and OBC voters.
Post the break in the Shiv Sena, in 2021, Lok Sabha polls in 2024 could be crucial factor where Shinde group has fair chances although the survey indicates that Uddhav Thackeray led Sena may capture a good percentage of votes.
It is huge gap between the two groups. While Uddhav gets support from respondents of about 12,5 % the Shinde faction reels at little above 5%.
And sooner or later they may get sand witched between the BJP on one hand and Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena on the other.
BJP clearly seems to be emerging as the dominant pole of Maharashtra politics. This is a phase which began in 2014 and has since intensified.
By including local and sub-regional outfits from Congress and NCP, the party has expanded its influence.
Clear that the main battle is between the BJP and the MVA and where the MVA enjoys an edge over the BJP, according to the Sakal survey, with a 10% above.
Maharashtra will be between the BJP’s dominance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s arithmetic. According to the Sakal survey, the MVA’s combined vote share is around 48 percent, a good 10 percentage points over the combined vote share of the NDA.
