Apr 4: A fresh low pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around April 6-7. The Bay of Bengal hosted two cyclonic disturbances in the month of March but those systems spared the coast of India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted “an upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood on 6th April. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over Southeast Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 24 hours”. The predicted system might move west-northwestwards.
As per Skymet Weather Services, the low pressure area may intensify into a depression, further into a deep depression and move towards the east coast of India.
However, Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Fani’ was an exception. It formed over the Bay of Bengal on April 26, 2019 and made landfall in Odisha’s Puri on May 3, 2019.
Several factors are responsible for the intensification of a weather system over the Bay of Bengal. The sea surface temperature must be warm and more than 28 degree Celsius while the vertical wind shear needs to be light to moderate with a strong poleward outflow and prolonged sea travel. All these conditions seem to exist which might help the system to intensify into a cyclone, Skymet added.
