“The cyclonic circulation over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal now lies over Equatorial Indian Ocean & adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal and extends up to mid-tropospheric level. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same area during the next 24 hours,” the IMD bulletin issued this noon said.
Speaking to a local channel, IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, however, said that it is too early to determine whether the low-pressure would intensify into a cyclone. “No forecast about the probability of cyclone has been made by the agency, as of now,” he added.
According to some weather experts, the system may move northwards and then northwestward, before heading towards Bangladesh.
Notably, March to May is considered the first cyclone season for the Indian seas. The beginning of March is also known as pre-Monsoon Cyclone season as the heat starts building up over the Southern Peninsula due to increasing heat potential in the ocean waters, a report published by Skymet said.
According to the report, the shifting of ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) northwards is essential for the formation of a storm and this equatorial trough begins to move towards Northern Hemisphere, as the sun crosses the Equator on March 20.
The probability of cyclonic storms during the latter half of March is, however, very less. Only 5 cyclones have formed between 1900 and 2021 and of these none made landfall over land as a storm, it added.
Notably, the depression, which had formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal earlier this month, was rather too early in the season.
