Mumbai, April 8: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday has revised its real GDP projection for FY2022-23 to 7.2 per cent in the backdrop of the escalating geopolitical tensions and augmented supply-side disruptions due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. In its bi-monthly policy review announced in February this year, the RBI had projected GDP growth at 7.8 per cent for the current financial year.
“Financial market volatility induced by monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies, renewed Covid-19 infections in some major countries with augmented supply-side disruptions and protracted shortages of critical inputs, such as semiconductors and chips, pose downside risks to the outlook,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while unveiling the first bi-monthly monetary policy review of FY2023.
“Taking all these factors into consideration, real GDP growth for 2022-23 is now projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1:2022-23 at 16.2 per cent; Q2 at 6.2 per cent; Q3 at 4.1 per cent; and Q4 at 4 per cent, assuming crude oil (Indian basket) at USD 100 per barrel during 2022-23,” the Governor said. Das, however, hoped that going forward, robust Rabi output could support recovery in rural demand, while a pick-up in contact-intensive services could help in further strengthening urban demand.
He noted that the consumer confidence is improving and business confidence is in optimistic territory and supportive of revival in economic activity. “Investment activity may gain traction with improving business confidence, pick up in bank credit, continuing support from government capex and congenial financial conditions,” he added. Maintaining its accommodative stance the RBI has kept the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 4 per cent, for the 11th time in a row. UNI
